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The DDIS Intelligence Risk Assessment 2010

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The DDIS Intelligence Risk Assessment 2010 

The DDIS annual unclassified intelligence risk assessment contains an up-to-date intelligence assessment of conditions abroad affecting Denmark's security. The information cut-off date is 11 August 2010.

2010-09-13 - 09:00
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) has just published its annual intelligence risk assessment.

The intelligence risk assessment provides a current assessment of conditions abroad affecting Denmark's security. It outlines present and potential threats in a 10-year perspective, focusing on areas where Danish forces are deployed, on terrorist networks abroad threatening Denmark and Danish interests, including deployed Danish forces, as well as on conflict and crises areas worldwide.

The DDIS Intelligence Risk Assessment 2010 has been prepared on the basis of classified reports; however, it has been prepared with all-inclusive accessibility in mind. This has impacted on the wording in the assessment and on the number of details included.

This year, we have included an outline of the DDIS language usage and work method within intelligence analysis.

The information cut-off date is 11 August 2010.

The following excerpts from this year's intelligence risk assessment will give you an idea of some of the topics covered:

The Afghan security situation remains serious and the number of attacks by the insurgents has increased. The effect of the strengthened international security force and the Afghan security forces is not likely to be seen until the turn of the year 2010-11 at the earliest. The state institutions remain weak. The state will both in the short and medium term find it difficult to gain popular legitimacy. The governor in Helmand province has made efforts to fight the narcotics problems and corruption and to develop good governance in the province. Certain progress has been made in these matters.

Major parts of the Pakistani areas bordering Afghanistan are in fact outside government control and al-Qaida, Afghan Taliban and other militant Sunni extremists use the area as a safe haven. In recent years, Pakistan has seen a surge in Sunni extremist violence which has generated nationwide instability. At the same time, the government tries to fight the extensive Sunni extremist terrorist networks, however, it is not likely that in the short term the national leadership wants to crack down on the senior leadership of Afghan Taliban in Pakistan.

Al-Qaida's capacity to prepare and launch terrorist attacks singlehandedly has been weakened, but it is successful in influencing other Sunni extremist groups to combine their fight against their national governments with attacks on Western targets.

Download the DDIS Intelligence Risk Assessment 2010

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