Intelligence Risk Assessment 2020

The main focus of the 2020 Intelligence Risk Assessment is on our top-priority areas, as they are the ones that currently have the most impact on Denmark’s security and strategic situation. Once again, the focal areas include the situation in the Arctic, Russia and China as well as the cyber threat and the terrorist threat.

In recent years, the great powers have intensified their focus on the Arctic, and developments in the region are characterized by increasingly tense relations between the United States, China and Russia. In years to come, we expect that military activities will increase in the Arctic, and both the EU and NATO will likely wish to play a greater role in the area.

Russia will remain a major security policy challenge to the West and to Denmark, while China is increasing its influence, and thus its importance, both regionally and globally. The cyber threat is real and tangible – it poses a danger every single day, and cyber attacks carried out by foreign states and cyber criminals are among the most serious security concerns for Denmark. Finally, the terrorist attacks in Europe in the autumn of 2020 clearly showed that the terrorist threat continues to be serious.

In addition to these main issues, certain areas of the world remain as foreign and security policy challenges for Denmark. These are the Middle East, North Africa, West Africa and Afghanistan, all of which are dealt with in separate chapters.

Editing was finalized on 26 November 2020.

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